Brad Carlin, PhD

Professor, Division of Biostatistics

Brad Carlin

Contact Info

Office Phone 612-624-6646

Office Address:
Mayo, A464

Mailing Address:
420 Delaware St. SE
MMC 303
Minneapolis, MN 55455

PhD, Statistics, University of Connecticut, 1989

MS, Statistics, University of Connecticut, 1986

BS, Mathematics and Actuarial Science, University of Nebraska, 1984

Associateship, Society of Actuaries, 1985


My research focuses on hierarchical Bayesian methods and associated computational approaches to complex scientific problems, especially as these problems relate to environmental science and clinical trials. I also help create user-friendly software for implementing these models in practice. 


Methods, Bayesian methods, hierarchical modeling, clinical trials, adaptive design, network analysis

Awards & Recognition

  • Elected Fellow, International Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016
  • University of Minnesota School of Public Health Award for Excellence in Advising, 2014
  • Mortimer Spiegelman Award, American Public Health Association, 1999

Professional Associations

  • American Statistical Association
  • International Society for Bayesian Analysis
  • Institute of Mathematical Statistics
  • Biometric Society
  • International Statistical Institute


Research Summary/Interests

My most significant research contributions can be grouped into five primary areas: 

  • Hierarchical Bayesian biostatistical model development and selection
  • Bayesian approaches for longitudinal and joint longitudinal-survival modeling
  • Bayesian spatial and spatiotemporal approaches for geographically referenced health data
  • Bayesian hierarchical approaches for adaptive clinical trials
  • Bayesian hierarchical approaches to network meta-analysis

Research Funding Grants

  • 6/1/12–5/31/17, NIH, "Statistical Methods and Software for More Efficient, Ethical, and Affordable Clinical Trials," Principal Investigator
  • 7/26/13–8/27/17, "Methods and Software for Network Meta-Analysis," Principal Investigator
  • 12/2/15–12/31/17, "Bayesian Methods and Software for Data Augmentation in Phase 1," Principal Investigator
  • 7/6/16–5/31/21, NIH, "Identifying Primary Care Practice Components of Optimal Diabetes Care in Patient-Centered Medical Homes," Co-Investigator
  • 9/15/16–5/31/21, NIH, "The ACCESS Trial—DCC," Co-Investigator


See a full list of publications on PubMed


Key Publications

  • Murray TA, Hobbs BP, Sargent DJ, and Carlin BP. Flexible Bayesian survival modeling with semiparametric time-dependent and shape-restricted covariate effects. Bayesian Analysis, 11, 381-402, 2016
  • Schnell PM, Tang Q, Offen WW, and Carlin, BP. A Bayesian credible subgroups approach to identifying patient subgroups with positive treatment effects. To appear Biometrics, 2016
  • Hong H, Chu H, Zhang J, and Carlin BP. A Bayesian missing data framework for generalized multiple outcome mixed treatment comparisons (with discussion and rejoinder). Research Synthesis Methods, 7, 6-33, 2016
  • Quick H, Banerjee S, and Carlin BP. Bayesian modeling and analysis for gradients in spatiotemporal processes. Biometrics, 71, 575-584, 2015


Academic Interests and Focus

I teach a variety of courses focusing on hierarchical Bayesian modeling and its implementation, spatial epidemiology, statistical computing, spatial statistics, and empirical Bayes methods and data analysis.


  • PubH 6400, Topics in Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis
  • PubH 8403, Research Skills in Biostatistics

Community Engagement

Editorial Boards

  • Chair, Biostatistics Chairs Working Group, International Biometric Society
  • Former Editor in Chief, Bayesian Analysis
  • Former Editorial Board Member, Statistics in Medicine
  • Former Organizing and Editorial Board Member, Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics conferences
  • Former Associate Editor, Journal of the American Statistical Association (Theory and Methods)
  • Former Editorial Board Member, Texts in Statistical Science series


U of MN Health Sciences Expert Link

Health Experts Profile